February 21, 2020
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kevin Aguilar | Zubaira Tukhugov |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 064 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Zubaira Tukhugov's 2-fight experience advantage (6 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Zubaira Tukhugov for the expected result. Had Kevin Aguilar pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Kevin Aguilar | Zubaira Tukhugov |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 005 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kevin Aguilar | Zubaira Tukhugov |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:21 | 3:21 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 032 | 1 186 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +81 |
Zubaira Tukhugov earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:21, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Kevin Aguilar | Zubaira Tukhugov |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 9 | 28 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 28 | 36 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 9 | 28 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 916 | 1 213 |
| ELO Change | -139 | +139 |
Zubaira Tukhugov dominated the striking exchanges with 28 vs 9 significant strikes, 77.8% vs 32.1% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Zubaira Tukhugov capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kevin Aguilar | Zubaira Tukhugov |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:09 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 13 |
| Ground ELO | 1 023 | 1 157 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
Zubaira Tukhugov landed 2 knockdowns followed by 13 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Kevin Aguilar | Zubaira Tukhugov |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 246 | 169 |
| Activity ELO | 1 040 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +40 |
Zubaira Tukhugov demonstrated solid activity levels with 169 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Zubaira Tukhugov capitalized on this activity level, while Kevin Aguilar's 246-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kevin Aguilar | Zubaira Tukhugov |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 014 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Zubaira Tukhugov started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kevin Aguilar is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kevin Aguilar | Zubaira Tukhugov |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 005 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.