June 6, 2008
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kevin Burns | Roan Carneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 083 | 987 |
| ELO Change | +83 | -83 |
Kevin Burns overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (1 vs 4 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Roan Carneiro.
| Metric | Kevin Burns | Roan Carneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 023 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kevin Burns | Roan Carneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:50 | 3:50 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 087 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | +87 | -56 |
Kevin Burns earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:50, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Roan Carneiro was submitted.
| Metric | Kevin Burns | Roan Carneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 8 | 12 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 13 | 30 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 55 | 36 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 030 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Kevin Burns edged the striking exchanges with 61.5% vs 40.0% accuracy. Kevin Burns capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kevin Burns | Roan Carneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:54 | 7:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 10 |
| Ground ELO | 1 058 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | +58 | -58 |
Kevin Burns edged out Roan Carneiro on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:54 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Kevin Burns | Roan Carneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 161 |
| Activity ELO | 1 024 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Kevin Burns demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Kevin Burns capitalized on this activity level, while Roan Carneiro's 161-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kevin Burns | Roan Carneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 025 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -23 |
Kevin Burns started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Roan Carneiro is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kevin Burns | Roan Carneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 023 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.