December 11, 2009
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kevin Burns | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 004 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +35 |
TJ Grant overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 5 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Kevin Burns.
| Metric | Kevin Burns | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 975 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kevin Burns | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:57 | 4:57 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 037 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | -56 | +119 |
TJ Grant earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:57, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Kevin Burns | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 14 | 28 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 37 | 40 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 21 | 32 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 883 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | -91 | +91 |
TJ Grant controlled the striking exchanges with 28 vs 14 significant strikes, 70.0% vs 37.8% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. TJ Grant capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kevin Burns | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:39 | 2:26 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 8 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 916 | 997 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
TJ Grant landed 1 knockdown followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Kevin Burns | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 176 | 155 |
| Activity ELO | 1 054 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +45 |
TJ Grant demonstrated solid activity levels with 155 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, TJ Grant capitalized on this activity level, while Kevin Burns's 176-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kevin Burns | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 982 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
TJ Grant started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kevin Burns is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kevin Burns | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 975 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.