January 29, 2016
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kevin Casey | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 001 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Rafael Natal's 9-fight experience advantage (14 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rafael Natal for the expected result. Had Kevin Casey pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Kevin Casey | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 986 | 1 094 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kevin Casey | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:37 | 3:37 |
| Win Type ELO | 980 | 1 187 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +55 |
Rafael Natal gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Kevin Casey | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 16 | 54 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 49 | 87 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 30 | 123 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 900 | 1 204 |
| ELO Change | -63 | +63 |
Rafael Natal dominated the striking exchanges with 123 vs 30 total strikes, 54 vs 16 significant strikes, 62.1% vs 32.7% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Rafael Natal capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kevin Casey | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:10 | 5:32 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 31 |
| Ground ELO | 1 016 | 1 272 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +49 |
Rafael Natal dominated Kevin Casey on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 5:32 of control time, 31 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Kevin Casey | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 51 | 253 |
| Activity ELO | 993 | 1 216 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +13 |
Rafael Natal demonstrated standard activity with 253 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Rafael Natal capitalized on this activity level, while Kevin Casey's 51-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kevin Casey | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 991 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +21 |
Rafael Natal extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kevin Casey is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kevin Casey | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 986 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.