August 26, 2016
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kevin Casey | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 972 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (7 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Kevin Casey | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 967 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kevin Casey | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:56 | 4:56 |
| Win Type ELO | 963 | 1 256 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +34 |
Sam Alvey gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Kevin Casey | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 25 | 59 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 51 | 114 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 31 | 70 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 844 | 1 183 |
| ELO Change | -62 | +62 |
Sam Alvey dominated the striking exchanges with 70 vs 31 total strikes, 59 vs 25 significant strikes, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Sam Alvey capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kevin Casey | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:36 | 0:31 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 13 |
| Ground ELO | 974 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
Sam Alvey landed 2 knockdowns followed by 13 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Kevin Casey | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 84 | 45 |
| Activity ELO | 983 | 1 264 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +45 |
Sam Alvey demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 45 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Sam Alvey capitalized on this activity level, while Kevin Casey's 84-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kevin Casey | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 972 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +21 |
Sam Alvey extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kevin Casey is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kevin Casey | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 967 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.