May 7, 2010
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kevin Ferguson | Matt Mitrione |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 053 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +37 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Kevin Ferguson | Matt Mitrione |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 999 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kevin Ferguson | Matt Mitrione |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:24 | 4:24 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 014 | 1 164 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +78 |
Matt Mitrione gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Kevin Ferguson | Matt Mitrione |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 44 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 21 | 56 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 14 | 63 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 936 | 1 176 |
| ELO Change | -80 | +80 |
Matt Mitrione controlled the striking exchanges with 63 vs 14 total strikes, 44 vs 5 significant strikes, 78.6% vs 23.8% accuracy. Matt Mitrione capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kevin Ferguson | Matt Mitrione |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:32 | 3:17 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 22 |
| Ground ELO | 1 020 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Matt Mitrione slightly outworked Kevin Ferguson on the ground with 0 takedowns, 3:17 of control time, 22 ground strikes, earning modest grappling bonuses.
| Metric | Kevin Ferguson | Matt Mitrione |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 154 | 154 |
| Activity ELO | 1 001 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +37 |
Matt Mitrione demonstrated solid activity levels with 154 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Matt Mitrione capitalized on this activity level, while Kevin Ferguson's 154-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kevin Ferguson | Matt Mitrione |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 001 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +25 |
Matt Mitrione extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kevin Ferguson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kevin Ferguson | Matt Mitrione |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 999 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.