July 28, 2023
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kevin Holland | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 19 | 18 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 224 | 1 235 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -40 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (19 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Kevin Holland | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 120 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kevin Holland | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:39 | 2:39 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 528 | 1 347 |
| ELO Change | +53 | -30 |
Kevin Holland earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:39, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Kevin Holland | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 9 | 4 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 16 | 11 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 12 | 6 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 471 | 1 229 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Kevin Holland slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 9 vs 4 significant strikes, 56.3% vs 36.4% accuracy. Kevin Holland capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kevin Holland | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:40 | 0:15 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 377 | 1 250 |
| ELO Change | +162 | -162 |
Kevin Holland dominated Michael Chiesa on the ground with 0:40 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Kevin Holland | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | 616 |
| Activity ELO | 1 408 | 1 256 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -15 |
Kevin Holland demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Kevin Holland capitalized on this activity level, while Michael Chiesa's 616-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kevin Holland | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 185 | 1 152 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -22 |
Kevin Holland extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Michael Chiesa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kevin Holland | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 118 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.