December 2, 2022
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kevin Holland | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 17 | 19 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 146 | 1 265 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Stephen Thompson's 2-fight experience advantage (19 vs 17 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Stephen Thompson for the expected result. Had Kevin Holland pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Kevin Holland | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 075 | 1 129 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kevin Holland | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 4 | 4 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 354 | 1 502 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +76 |
Stephen Thompson gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 4, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Kevin Holland | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 119 | 163 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 210 | 260 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 123 | 178 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 348 | 1 433 |
| ELO Change | -73 | +73 |
Stephen Thompson dominated the striking exchanges with 178 vs 123 total strikes, 163 vs 119 significant strikes. Stephen Thompson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kevin Holland | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:21 | 0:47 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 149 | 1 183 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Stephen Thompson did not secure a significant ground advantage against Kevin Holland on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:47 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Kevin Holland | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 85 | 350 |
| Activity ELO | 1 339 | 1 281 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Stephen Thompson demonstrated standard activity with 350 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Stephen Thompson capitalized on this activity level, while Kevin Holland's 85-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kevin Holland | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 131 | 1 218 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Stephen Thompson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kevin Holland is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kevin Holland | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 073 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

