Kevin Holland vs Stephen Thompson

December 2, 2022

Welterweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1202
(-31)
Kevin Holland
Winner: Stephen Thompson
KO/TKO
Round 4 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Kevin Holland-31
Stephen Thompson+36
1267
(+36)
Stephen Thompson

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Kevin Holland: -25Stephen Thompson: +25

Performance Statistics

MetricKevin HollandStephen Thompson
Total UFC Fights1719
Experience Gap-22
Experience ELO1 1461 265
ELO Change-25+25
💡

What Happened

Stephen Thompson's 2-fight experience advantage (19 vs 17 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Stephen Thompson for the expected result. Had Kevin Holland pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Kevin Holland: -20Stephen Thompson: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricKevin HollandStephen Thompson
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0751 129
ELO Change-20+20
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Kevin Holland: -38Stephen Thompson: +76

Performance Statistics

MetricKevin HollandStephen Thompson
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round44
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 3541 502
ELO Change-38+76
💡

What Happened

Stephen Thompson gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 4, earning finishing bonuses.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Kevin Holland: -73Stephen Thompson: +73

Performance Statistics

MetricKevin HollandStephen Thompson
Significant Strikes Landed119163
Significant Strikes Attempted210260
Total Strikes Landed123178
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 3481 433
ELO Change-73+73
💡

What Happened

Stephen Thompson dominated the striking exchanges with 178 vs 123 total strikes, 163 vs 119 significant strikes. Stephen Thompson capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Kevin Holland: -22Stephen Thompson: +22

Performance Statistics

MetricKevin HollandStephen Thompson
Takedowns Landed20
Takedowns Attempted60
Ground Control Time1:210:47
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO1 1491 183
ELO Change-22+22
💡

What Happened

Stephen Thompson did not secure a significant ground advantage against Kevin Holland on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:47 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Kevin Holland: -28Stephen Thompson: +28

Performance Statistics

MetricKevin HollandStephen Thompson
Days Since Last Fight85350
Activity ELO1 3391 281
ELO Change-28+28
💡

What Happened

Stephen Thompson demonstrated standard activity with 350 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Stephen Thompson capitalized on this activity level, while Kevin Holland's 85-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Kevin Holland: -18Stephen Thompson: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricKevin HollandStephen Thompson
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO1 1311 218
ELO Change-18+20
💡

What Happened

Stephen Thompson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kevin Holland is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Kevin Holland: -21Stephen Thompson: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricKevin HollandStephen Thompson
Weight ClassWelterweightWelterweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0731 121
ELO Change-21+21
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.