August 3, 2018
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kevin Holland | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -14 | 14 |
| Experience ELO | 981 | 1 169 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Thiago Santos's 14-fight experience advantage (15 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Santos for the expected result. Had Kevin Holland pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Kevin Holland | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 984 | 1 094 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kevin Holland | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 991 | 1 385 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +9 |
Thiago Santos earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Kevin Holland | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 31 | 69 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 55 | 153 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 81 | 81 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 993 | 1 361 |
| ELO Change | -7 | +7 |
Thiago Santos controlled the striking exchanges with 69 vs 31 significant strikes, 45.1% vs 56.4% accuracy. Thiago Santos capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kevin Holland | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:10 | 9:37 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 13 | 47 |
| Ground ELO | 960 | 1 217 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Thiago Santos controlled Kevin Holland on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 9:37 of control time, 47 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Kevin Holland | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 105 |
| Activity ELO | 991 | 1 240 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +23 |
Thiago Santos demonstrated solid activity levels with 105 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Santos capitalized on this activity level, while Kevin Holland's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kevin Holland | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 986 | 1 131 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +16 |
Thiago Santos started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kevin Holland is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kevin Holland | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 984 | 1 094 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

