June 7, 2025
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kevin Holland | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 26 | 23 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 125 | 1 248 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -49 |
Kevin Holland's 3-fight experience advantage (26 vs 23 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kevin Holland for the expected result. Had Vicente Luque pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Kevin Holland | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 095 | 1 139 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kevin Holland | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:03 | 1:03 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 486 | 1 441 |
| ELO Change | +82 | -53 |
Kevin Holland earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:03, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Vicente Luque was submitted.
| Metric | Kevin Holland | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 40 | 24 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 74 | 46 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 44 | 24 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 382 | 1 219 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Kevin Holland controlled the striking exchanges with 44 vs 24 total strikes, 40 vs 24 significant strikes. Kevin Holland capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kevin Holland | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:13 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 255 | 1 278 |
| ELO Change | +83 | -83 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Kevin Holland | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 77 | 182 |
| Activity ELO | 1 419 | 1 345 |
| ELO Change | +65 | -22 |
Kevin Holland demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 77 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Kevin Holland capitalized on this activity level, while Vicente Luque's 182-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kevin Holland | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 159 | 1 206 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -27 |
Kevin Holland extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Vicente Luque is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kevin Holland | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 093 | 1 131 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

