November 18, 2016
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kevin Lee | Magomed Mustafaev |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 161 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Kevin Lee's 6-fight experience advantage (9 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kevin Lee for the expected result. Had Magomed Mustafaev pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Kevin Lee | Magomed Mustafaev |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 097 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kevin Lee | Magomed Mustafaev |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:31 | 4:31 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 293 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | +52 | -33 |
Kevin Lee earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:31, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Magomed Mustafaev was submitted.
| Metric | Kevin Lee | Magomed Mustafaev |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 20 | 20 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 28 | 34 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 46 | 34 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 158 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Kevin Lee slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 71.4% vs 58.8% accuracy. Kevin Lee capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kevin Lee | Magomed Mustafaev |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 7 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 9 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:37 | 1:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 12 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 370 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +87 | -87 |
Kevin Lee dominated Magomed Mustafaev on the ground with 7 vs 0 takedowns, 6:37 of control time, 12 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Kevin Lee | Magomed Mustafaev |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 135 | 343 |
| Activity ELO | 1 237 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -13 |
Kevin Lee demonstrated solid activity levels with 135 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Kevin Lee capitalized on this activity level, while Magomed Mustafaev's 343-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kevin Lee | Magomed Mustafaev |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 127 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -18 |
Kevin Lee extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Magomed Mustafaev is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kevin Lee | Magomed Mustafaev |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 097 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.