May 17, 2019
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kevin Lee | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 27 |
| Experience Gap | -12 | 12 |
| Experience ELO | 1 203 | 1 301 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Rafael Dos Anjos's 12-fight experience advantage (27 vs 15 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rafael Dos Anjos for the expected result. Had Kevin Lee pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Kevin Lee | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 108 | 1 240 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kevin Lee | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 4 | 4 |
| Time of Finish | 3:47 | 3:47 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 344 | 1 523 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +45 |
Rafael Dos Anjos earned a finish with a Submission in round 4 at 3:47, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Kevin Lee was submitted.
| Metric | Kevin Lee | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 35 | 60 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 97 | 111 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 40 | 75 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 259 | 1 446 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Rafael Dos Anjos controlled the striking exchanges with 75 vs 40 total strikes, 60 vs 35 significant strikes, 54.1% vs 36.1% accuracy. Rafael Dos Anjos capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kevin Lee | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 6 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 16 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 8:42 | 3:53 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 9 |
| Ground ELO | 1 352 | 1 532 |
| ELO Change | -126 | +126 |
Rafael Dos Anjos dominated Kevin Lee on the ground with 4 takedowns, 3:53 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Kevin Lee | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 154 | 169 |
| Activity ELO | 1 319 | 1 499 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +22 |
Rafael Dos Anjos demonstrated solid activity levels with 169 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Rafael Dos Anjos capitalized on this activity level, while Kevin Lee's 154-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kevin Lee | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 172 | 1 278 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +19 |
Rafael Dos Anjos started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kevin Lee is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kevin Lee | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 104 | 1 175 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.