June 30, 2023
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kevin Lee | Rinat Fakhretdinov |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 19 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 16 | -16 |
| Experience ELO | 1 137 | 1 177 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +80 |
Rinat Fakhretdinov overcame a 16-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 19 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Kevin Lee.
| Metric | Kevin Lee | Rinat Fakhretdinov |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 064 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kevin Lee | Rinat Fakhretdinov |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:55 | 0:55 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 290 | 1 247 |
| ELO Change | -69 | +148 |
Rinat Fakhretdinov locked in a lightning-fast Submission in 0:55 of round 1. This explosive first-minute submission earned substantial bonus rewards.
| Metric | Kevin Lee | Rinat Fakhretdinov |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 11 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 8 | 17 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 3 | 11 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 199 | 1 300 |
| ELO Change | -122 | +122 |
Rinat Fakhretdinov controlled the striking exchanges with 11 vs 3 significant strikes, 64.7% vs 37.5% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Rinat Fakhretdinov capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kevin Lee | Rinat Fakhretdinov |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:20 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 279 | 1 281 |
| ELO Change | -57 | +57 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Kevin Lee | Rinat Fakhretdinov |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 672 | 196 |
| Activity ELO | 1 264 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +42 |
Rinat Fakhretdinov demonstrated standard activity with 196 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Rinat Fakhretdinov capitalized on this activity level, while Kevin Lee's 672-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kevin Lee | Rinat Fakhretdinov |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 125 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +35 |
Rinat Fakhretdinov extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kevin Lee is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kevin Lee | Rinat Fakhretdinov |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 061 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.