October 6, 2017
UFC Interim Lightweight Title Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kevin Lee | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 219 | 1 382 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Tony Ferguson's 2-fight experience advantage (14 vs 12 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tony Ferguson for the expected result. Had Kevin Lee pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Kevin Lee | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 124 | 1 224 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kevin Lee | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:02 | 4:02 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 396 | 1 550 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +50 |
Tony Ferguson earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 4:02, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Kevin Lee was submitted.
| Metric | Kevin Lee | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 55 | 54 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 119 | 103 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 71 | 57 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 233 | 1 448 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +10 |
The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since Kevin Lee lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. Tony Ferguson's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Kevin Lee | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:49 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 20 | 13 |
| Ground ELO | 1 473 | 1 516 |
| ELO Change | -48 | +48 |
Tony Ferguson edged out Kevin Lee on the ground with 0 takedowns, 13 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Kevin Lee | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 104 | 336 |
| Activity ELO | 1 329 | 1 467 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Tony Ferguson demonstrated standard activity with 336 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Tony Ferguson capitalized on this activity level, while Kevin Lee's 104-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kevin Lee | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 10 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 190 | 1 428 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +61 |
Tony Ferguson extended his incredible 10-fight win streak, earning one of the highest possible momentum bonuses for sustained dominance. This elite-level consistency triggered exponential streak bonuses, while Kevin Lee is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kevin Lee | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 124 | 1 218 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.