November 18, 2022
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kevin Natividad | Ricky Turcios |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 927 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +27 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Kevin Natividad | Ricky Turcios |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 940 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kevin Natividad | Ricky Turcios |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 916 | 984 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +9 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Ricky Turcios receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Kevin Natividad | Ricky Turcios |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 41 | 68 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 81 | 115 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 61 | 170 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 814 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Ricky Turcios dominated the striking exchanges with 170 vs 61 total strikes, 68 vs 41 significant strikes, 59.1% vs 50.6% accuracy. Ricky Turcios capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kevin Natividad | Ricky Turcios |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 7 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 13 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:00 | 6:17 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 13 | 35 |
| Ground ELO | 887 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Ricky Turcios edged out Kevin Natividad on the ground with 2 takedowns, 6:17 of control time, 35 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Kevin Natividad | Ricky Turcios |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 575 | 134 |
| Activity ELO | 941 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +37 |
Ricky Turcios demonstrated solid activity levels with 134 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Ricky Turcios capitalized on this activity level, while Kevin Natividad's 575-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kevin Natividad | Ricky Turcios |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 941 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Ricky Turcios started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kevin Natividad is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kevin Natividad | Ricky Turcios |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 940 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.