September 20, 2013
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Khabib Nurmagomedov | Pat Healy |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 214 | 965 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
Khabib Nurmagomedov's 2-fight experience advantage (5 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Khabib Nurmagomedov for the expected result. Had Pat Healy pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Khabib Nurmagomedov | Pat Healy |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 101 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Khabib Nurmagomedov | Pat Healy |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 285 | 946 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
Khabib Nurmagomedov earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Khabib Nurmagomedov | Pat Healy |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 54 | 44 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 130 | 157 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 90 | 68 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 282 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +8 | -8 |
Khabib Nurmagomedov edged the striking exchanges with 90 vs 68 total strikes, 54 vs 44 significant strikes, 41.5% vs 28.0% accuracy. Khabib Nurmagomedov capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Khabib Nurmagomedov | Pat Healy |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 11 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:31 | 0:06 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 8 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 323 | 875 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Khabib Nurmagomedov dominated Pat Healy on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 6:31 of control time, 8 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Khabib Nurmagomedov | Pat Healy |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | 147 |
| Activity ELO | 1 174 | 967 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -12 |
Khabib Nurmagomedov demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Khabib Nurmagomedov capitalized on this activity level, while Pat Healy's 147-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Khabib Nurmagomedov | Pat Healy |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 5 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 134 | 965 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -14 |
Khabib Nurmagomedov continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Pat Healy's now at 0.
| Metric | Khabib Nurmagomedov | Pat Healy |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 101 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.