November 12, 2021
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Khaos Williams | Miguel Baeza |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 163 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -23 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (5 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Khaos Williams | Miguel Baeza |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 066 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Khaos Williams | Miguel Baeza |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:02 | 1:02 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 377 | 1 220 |
| ELO Change | +72 | -36 |
Khaos Williams gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Khaos Williams | Miguel Baeza |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 49 | 31 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 131 | 56 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 60 | 32 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 413 | 1 186 |
| ELO Change | +80 | -80 |
Khaos Williams controlled the striking exchanges with 60 vs 32 total strikes, 49 vs 31 significant strikes, 37.4% vs 55.4% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Khaos Williams capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Khaos Williams | Miguel Baeza |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:48 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 11 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 124 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | +76 | -76 |
Khaos Williams landed 1 knockdown followed by 11 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Khaos Williams | Miguel Baeza |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 148 | 162 |
| Activity ELO | 1 104 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -22 |
Khaos Williams demonstrated solid activity levels with 148 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Khaos Williams capitalized on this activity level, while Miguel Baeza's 162-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Khaos Williams | Miguel Baeza |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 082 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -22 |
Khaos Williams extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Miguel Baeza is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Khaos Williams | Miguel Baeza |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 066 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.