July 26, 2024
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kiefer Crosbie | Sam Patterson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 951 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Kiefer Crosbie | Sam Patterson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 959 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kiefer Crosbie | Sam Patterson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:50 | 2:50 |
| Win Type ELO | 924 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +59 |
Sam Patterson earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:50, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Kiefer Crosbie | Sam Patterson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 9 | 9 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 16 | 26 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 10 | 13 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 953 | 988 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Kiefer Crosbie controlled the striking through superior accuracy (56.3% vs 34.6%). However, since Kiefer Crosbie lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Sam Patterson's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Kiefer Crosbie | Sam Patterson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:15 | 0:56 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 894 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -48 | +48 |
Sam Patterson controlled Kiefer Crosbie on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:56 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Kiefer Crosbie | Sam Patterson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 322 | 189 |
| Activity ELO | 959 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +25 |
Sam Patterson demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Sam Patterson capitalized on this activity level, while Kiefer Crosbie's 322-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kiefer Crosbie | Sam Patterson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 959 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +24 |
Sam Patterson extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kiefer Crosbie is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kiefer Crosbie | Sam Patterson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 959 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

