October 30, 2020
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | King Green | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 10 | -10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 140 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +70 |
Thiago Moises overcame a 10-fight experience disadvantage (5 vs 15 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran King Green.
| Metric | King Green | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 046 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | King Green | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 181 | 1 144 |
| ELO Change | -60 | +60 |
Thiago Moises earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | King Green | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 85 | 42 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 177 | 119 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 94 | 43 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 222 | 991 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
King Green controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (94 vs 43 total strikes), significant strike advantage (85 vs 42), superior accuracy (48.0% vs 35.3%). However, since King Green lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Thiago Moises's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | King Green | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:11 | 1:51 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 199 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -55 | +55 |
Thiago Moises edged out King Green on the ground with 2 takedowns, 1:51 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | King Green | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 50 | 172 |
| Activity ELO | 1 264 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +60 |
Thiago Moises demonstrated solid activity levels with 172 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Moises capitalized on this activity level, while King Green's 50-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | King Green | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 080 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +32 |
Thiago Moises extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. King Green is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | King Green | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 046 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.