July 28, 2023
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | King Green | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 22 | 22 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 175 | 1 214 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -27 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (22 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | King Green | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 062 | 1 101 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | King Green | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:54 | 4:54 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 348 | 1 318 |
| ELO Change | +81 | -54 |
King Green earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 4:54, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Tony Ferguson was submitted.
| Metric | King Green | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 137 | 54 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 217 | 123 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 145 | 62 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 257 | 1 151 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -43 |
King Green dominated the striking exchanges with 145 vs 62 total strikes, 137 vs 54 significant strikes, 63.1% vs 43.9% accuracy. King Green capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | King Green | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:25 | 0:13 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 21 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 298 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | +141 | -141 |
King Green dominated Tony Ferguson on the ground with 3:25 of control time, 21 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | King Green | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 98 | 322 |
| Activity ELO | 1 341 | 1 338 |
| ELO Change | +66 | -26 |
King Green demonstrated solid activity levels with 98 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, King Green capitalized on this activity level, while Tony Ferguson's 322-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | King Green | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 120 | 1 341 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -36 |
King Green started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tony Ferguson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | King Green | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 062 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.