June 3, 2005
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Koji Oishi | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 950 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Nick Diaz's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nick Diaz for the expected result. Had Koji Oishi pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Koji Oishi | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 964 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Koji Oishi | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:24 | 1:24 |
| Win Type ELO | 970 | 1 249 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +45 |
Nick Diaz earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:24, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Koji Oishi | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 2 | 25 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 22 | 44 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 2 | 26 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 901 | 1 266 |
| ELO Change | -61 | +61 |
Nick Diaz controlled the striking exchanges with 26 vs 2 total strikes, 25 vs 2 significant strikes, 56.8% vs 9.1% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Nick Diaz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Koji Oishi | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 929 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Koji Oishi | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 1 877 | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 967 | 1 104 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +40 |
Nick Diaz demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Nick Diaz capitalized on this activity level, while Koji Oishi's 1877-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Koji Oishi | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 965 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +20 |
Nick Diaz extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Koji Oishi is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Koji Oishi | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 964 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.