October 1, 2021
Middleweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Krzysztof Jotko | Misha Cirkunov |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 147 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Krzysztof Jotko's 4-fight experience advantage (15 vs 11 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Krzysztof Jotko for the expected result. Had Misha Cirkunov pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Krzysztof Jotko | Misha Cirkunov |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 087 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Krzysztof Jotko | Misha Cirkunov |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 238 | 1 229 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -11 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Krzysztof Jotko receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Krzysztof Jotko | Misha Cirkunov |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 41 | 41 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 95 | 91 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 56 | 55 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 164 | 949 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -11 |
Krzysztof Jotko slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Krzysztof Jotko capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Krzysztof Jotko | Misha Cirkunov |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 5 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 17 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:44 | 4:06 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 1 193 | 1 161 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Krzysztof Jotko did not secure a significant ground advantage against Misha Cirkunov on the ground with 1 takedown, 0:44 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Krzysztof Jotko | Misha Cirkunov |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 154 | 203 |
| Activity ELO | 1 206 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -17 |
Krzysztof Jotko demonstrated solid activity levels with 154 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Krzysztof Jotko capitalized on this activity level, while Misha Cirkunov's 203-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Krzysztof Jotko | Misha Cirkunov |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 132 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -18 |
Krzysztof Jotko started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Misha Cirkunov is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Krzysztof Jotko | Misha Cirkunov |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 087 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

