November 2, 2018
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kurt Holobaugh | Shane Burgos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 899 | 1 125 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
Shane Burgos's 2-fight experience advantage (5 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Shane Burgos for the expected result. Had Kurt Holobaugh pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Kurt Holobaugh | Shane Burgos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 946 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kurt Holobaugh | Shane Burgos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:11 | 2:11 |
| Win Type ELO | 912 | 1 160 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +37 |
Shane Burgos earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:11, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Kurt Holobaugh | Shane Burgos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 21 | 17 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 51 | 24 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 26 | 17 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 892 | 1 115 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +10 |
Kurt Holobaugh controlled the striking through superior accuracy (41.2% vs 70.8%), 1 knockdown. However, since Kurt Holobaugh lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Shane Burgos's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Kurt Holobaugh | Shane Burgos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:13 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 902 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Kurt Holobaugh | Shane Burgos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 113 | 287 |
| Activity ELO | 952 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
Shane Burgos demonstrated standard activity with 287 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Shane Burgos capitalized on this activity level, while Kurt Holobaugh's 113-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kurt Holobaugh | Shane Burgos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 946 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +17 |
Shane Burgos started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kurt Holobaugh is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kurt Holobaugh | Shane Burgos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 946 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

