May 10, 2019
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kurt Holobaugh | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 874 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +28 |
Thiago Moises overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 4 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Kurt Holobaugh.
| Metric | Kurt Holobaugh | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 927 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kurt Holobaugh | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 879 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Thiago Moises earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Kurt Holobaugh | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 39 | 66 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 115 | 102 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 108 | 115 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 867 | 971 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Thiago Moises controlled the striking exchanges with 66 vs 39 significant strikes, 64.7% vs 33.9% accuracy. Thiago Moises capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kurt Holobaugh | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:13 | 7:51 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 30 |
| Ground ELO | 816 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | -86 | +86 |
Thiago Moises dominated Kurt Holobaugh on the ground with 4 vs 2 takedowns, 7:51 of control time, 30 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Kurt Holobaugh | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 189 | 182 |
| Activity ELO | 934 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +23 |
Thiago Moises demonstrated standard activity with 182 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Moises capitalized on this activity level, while Kurt Holobaugh's 189-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kurt Holobaugh | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 927 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +20 |
Thiago Moises started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kurt Holobaugh is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kurt Holobaugh | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 927 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.