April 1, 2008
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kurt Pellegrino | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 009 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +31 |
Nate Diaz overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (4 vs 6 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Kurt Pellegrino.
| Metric | Kurt Pellegrino | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 005 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kurt Pellegrino | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:06 | 3:06 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 106 | 1 234 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +60 |
Nate Diaz earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:06, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Kurt Pellegrino was submitted.
| Metric | Kurt Pellegrino | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 20 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 34 | 17 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 35 | 28 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 090 | 1 157 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Kurt Pellegrino controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (20 vs 6), superior accuracy (58.8% vs 35.3%). However, since Kurt Pellegrino lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Nate Diaz's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Kurt Pellegrino | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:41 | 1:22 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 20 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 094 | 1 211 |
| ELO Change | -53 | +53 |
Nate Diaz controlled Kurt Pellegrino on the ground with 1 takedown, 1:22 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Kurt Pellegrino | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 70 | 70 |
| Activity ELO | 1 068 | 1 176 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +57 |
Nate Diaz demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 70 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Nate Diaz capitalized on this activity level, while Kurt Pellegrino's 70-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kurt Pellegrino | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 013 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +26 |
Nate Diaz extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kurt Pellegrino is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kurt Pellegrino | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 005 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.