April 4, 2007
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kurt Pellegrino | Nate Mohr |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 034 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Kurt Pellegrino's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kurt Pellegrino for the expected result. Had Nate Mohr pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Kurt Pellegrino | Nate Mohr |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 022 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kurt Pellegrino | Nate Mohr |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:58 | 2:58 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 113 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +63 | -36 |
Kurt Pellegrino earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:58, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Kurt Pellegrino | Nate Mohr |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 4 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 7 | 11 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 9 | 16 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 076 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since Nate Mohr lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. Kurt Pellegrino's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Kurt Pellegrino | Nate Mohr |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:53 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 155 | 940 |
| ELO Change | +60 | -60 |
Kurt Pellegrino controlled Nate Mohr on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:53 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Kurt Pellegrino | Nate Mohr |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 173 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 073 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -19 |
Kurt Pellegrino demonstrated solid activity levels with 173 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Kurt Pellegrino capitalized on this activity level, while Nate Mohr's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kurt Pellegrino | Nate Mohr |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 029 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -21 |
Kurt Pellegrino extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Nate Mohr is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kurt Pellegrino | Nate Mohr |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 022 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.