February 6, 2009
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kurt Pellegrino | Rob Emerson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 075 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Kurt Pellegrino's 4-fight experience advantage (8 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kurt Pellegrino for the expected result. Had Rob Emerson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Kurt Pellegrino | Rob Emerson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 049 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kurt Pellegrino | Rob Emerson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:14 | 3:14 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 218 | 1 155 |
| ELO Change | +77 | -50 |
Kurt Pellegrino earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:14, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Rob Emerson was submitted.
| Metric | Kurt Pellegrino | Rob Emerson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 16 | 21 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 58 | 77 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 27 | 24 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 185 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Rob Emerson controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (21 vs 16). However, since Rob Emerson lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Kurt Pellegrino's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Kurt Pellegrino | Rob Emerson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:29 | 1:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 195 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -45 |
Kurt Pellegrino controlled Rob Emerson on the ground with 1 takedown, 1:29 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Kurt Pellegrino | Rob Emerson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 155 | 183 |
| Activity ELO | 1 136 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -18 |
Kurt Pellegrino demonstrated solid activity levels with 155 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Kurt Pellegrino capitalized on this activity level, while Rob Emerson's 183-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kurt Pellegrino | Rob Emerson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 063 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -22 |
Kurt Pellegrino extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rob Emerson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kurt Pellegrino | Rob Emerson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 049 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.