November 18, 2011
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kyle Kingsbury | Stephan Bonnar |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 068 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Stephan Bonnar's 8-fight experience advantage (14 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Stephan Bonnar for the expected result. Had Kyle Kingsbury pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Kyle Kingsbury | Stephan Bonnar |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 039 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kyle Kingsbury | Stephan Bonnar |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 147 | 1 260 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Stephan Bonnar earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Kyle Kingsbury | Stephan Bonnar |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 31 | 36 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 53 | 74 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 38 | 133 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 145 | 1 217 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +42 |
Stephan Bonnar dominated the striking exchanges with 133 vs 38 total strikes, 36 vs 31 significant strikes, 48.6% vs 58.5% accuracy. Stephan Bonnar capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kyle Kingsbury | Stephan Bonnar |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:58 | 10:35 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 9 |
| Ground ELO | 1 059 | 1 247 |
| ELO Change | -102 | +102 |
Stephan Bonnar dominated Kyle Kingsbury on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 10:35 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Kyle Kingsbury | Stephan Bonnar |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 169 | 350 |
| Activity ELO | 1 092 | 1 184 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Stephan Bonnar demonstrated standard activity with 350 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Stephan Bonnar capitalized on this activity level, while Kyle Kingsbury's 169-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kyle Kingsbury | Stephan Bonnar |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 058 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +30 |
Stephan Bonnar extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kyle Kingsbury is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kyle Kingsbury | Stephan Bonnar |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 039 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.