May 3, 2019
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kyle Nelson | Matt Sayles |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 956 | 999 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +33 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Kyle Nelson | Matt Sayles |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 961 | 999 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kyle Nelson | Matt Sayles |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:16 | 3:16 |
| Win Type ELO | 938 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +68 |
Matt Sayles earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 3:16, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Kyle Nelson was submitted.
| Metric | Kyle Nelson | Matt Sayles |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 26 | 75 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 93 | 147 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 32 | 106 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 913 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +50 |
Matt Sayles dominated the striking exchanges with 106 vs 32 total strikes, 75 vs 26 significant strikes, 51.0% vs 28.0% accuracy. Matt Sayles capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kyle Nelson | Matt Sayles |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:47 | 2:47 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 24 |
| Ground ELO | 904 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -53 | +53 |
Matt Sayles controlled Kyle Nelson on the ground with 0 takedowns, 2:47 of control time, 24 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Kyle Nelson | Matt Sayles |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 147 | 273 |
| Activity ELO | 964 | 999 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Matt Sayles demonstrated standard activity with 273 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Matt Sayles capitalized on this activity level, while Kyle Nelson's 147-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kyle Nelson | Matt Sayles |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 962 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Matt Sayles started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kyle Nelson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kyle Nelson | Matt Sayles |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 961 | 999 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.