September 6, 2024
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kyle Nelson | Steve Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 054 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +36 |
Steve Garcia overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (8 vs 10 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Kyle Nelson.
| Metric | Kyle Nelson | Steve Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 004 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kyle Nelson | Steve Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:59 | 3:59 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 199 | 1 385 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +69 |
Steve Garcia earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:59, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Kyle Nelson | Steve Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 22 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 2 | 37 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 31 | 39 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 031 | 1 367 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Steve Garcia controlled the striking exchanges with 22 vs 1 significant strikes, 59.5% vs 50.0% accuracy. Steve Garcia capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kyle Nelson | Steve Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:13 | 1:36 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 20 |
| Ground ELO | 941 | 1 173 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Steve Garcia controlled Kyle Nelson on the ground with 1:36 of control time, 20 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Kyle Nelson | Steve Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 161 | 49 |
| Activity ELO | 1 089 | 1 218 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +103 |
Steve Garcia demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 49 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Steve Garcia capitalized on this activity level, while Kyle Nelson's 161-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kyle Nelson | Steve Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 5 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 025 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +35 |
Steve Garcia continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Kyle Nelson's now at 0.
| Metric | Kyle Nelson | Steve Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 004 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.