November 13, 2015
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kyle Noke | Peter Sobotta |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 044 | 957 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Kyle Noke's 3-fight experience advantage (9 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kyle Noke for the expected result. Had Peter Sobotta pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Kyle Noke | Peter Sobotta |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 052 | 971 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kyle Noke | Peter Sobotta |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:01 | 2:01 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 225 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | +61 | -27 |
Kyle Noke earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:01, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Kyle Noke | Peter Sobotta |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 23 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 43 | 6 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 24 | 2 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 261 | 913 |
| ELO Change | +70 | -70 |
Kyle Noke controlled the striking exchanges with 24 vs 2 total strikes, 23 vs 2 significant strikes, 53.5% vs 33.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Kyle Noke capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kyle Noke | Peter Sobotta |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:14 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 12 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 140 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -47 |
Kyle Noke landed 1 knockdown followed by 12 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Kyle Noke | Peter Sobotta |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 190 | 148 |
| Activity ELO | 1 109 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -15 |
Kyle Noke demonstrated standard activity with 190 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Kyle Noke capitalized on this activity level, while Peter Sobotta's 148-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kyle Noke | Peter Sobotta |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 070 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -18 |
Kyle Noke extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Peter Sobotta is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kyle Noke | Peter Sobotta |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 052 | 971 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

