February 11, 2022
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kyler Phillips | Marcelo Rojo |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 116 | 949 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Kyler Phillips's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kyler Phillips for the expected result. Had Marcelo Rojo pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Kyler Phillips | Marcelo Rojo |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 057 | 961 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kyler Phillips | Marcelo Rojo |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:48 | 1:48 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 191 | 949 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -21 |
Kyler Phillips earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 1:48, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Marcelo Rojo was submitted.
| Metric | Kyler Phillips | Marcelo Rojo |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 80 | 55 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 164 | 153 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 90 | 57 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 132 | 900 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Kyler Phillips controlled the striking exchanges with 90 vs 57 total strikes, 80 vs 55 significant strikes, 48.8% vs 35.9% accuracy. Kyler Phillips capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kyler Phillips | Marcelo Rojo |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 8 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:33 | 0:30 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 9 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 228 | 870 |
| ELO Change | +62 | -62 |
Kyler Phillips dominated Marcelo Rojo on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 2:33 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Kyler Phillips | Marcelo Rojo |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 204 | 336 |
| Activity ELO | 1 089 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -16 |
Kyler Phillips demonstrated standard activity with 204 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Kyler Phillips capitalized on this activity level, while Marcelo Rojo's 336-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kyler Phillips | Marcelo Rojo |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 073 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -16 |
Kyler Phillips started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Marcelo Rojo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kyler Phillips | Marcelo Rojo |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 057 | 961 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.