June 7, 2012
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Lance Benoist | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 046 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Seth Baczynski's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Seth Baczynski for the expected result. Had Lance Benoist pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Lance Benoist | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 003 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Lance Benoist | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 046 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +9 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Seth Baczynski receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Lance Benoist | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 35 | 25 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 64 | 70 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 114 | 50 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 017 | 1 114 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Lance Benoist controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (114 vs 50 total strikes), significant strike advantage (35 vs 25), superior accuracy (54.7% vs 35.7%). However, since Lance Benoist lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Seth Baczynski's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Lance Benoist | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:30 | 3:47 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 9 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 021 | 1 161 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Seth Baczynski did not secure a significant ground advantage against Lance Benoist on the ground with 1 takedown, 3:47 of control time, 6 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Lance Benoist | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 265 | 202 |
| Activity ELO | 1 009 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +22 |
Seth Baczynski demonstrated standard activity with 202 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Seth Baczynski capitalized on this activity level, while Lance Benoist's 265-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Lance Benoist | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 006 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +27 |
Seth Baczynski extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Lance Benoist is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Lance Benoist | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 003 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.