February 8, 2019
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Lando Vannata | Marcos Mariano |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 039 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Lando Vannata's 6-fight experience advantage (7 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Lando Vannata for the expected result. Had Marcos Mariano pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Lando Vannata | Marcos Mariano |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 998 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Lando Vannata | Marcos Mariano |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:55 | 4:55 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 109 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +59 | -36 |
Lando Vannata earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:55, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Lando Vannata | Marcos Mariano |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 20 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 40 | 9 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 39 | 4 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 097 | 928 |
| ELO Change | +72 | -72 |
Lando Vannata controlled the striking exchanges with 39 vs 4 total strikes, 20 vs 3 significant strikes, 50.0% vs 33.3% accuracy. Lando Vannata capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Lando Vannata | Marcos Mariano |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:35 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 18 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 110 | 858 |
| ELO Change | +142 | -142 |
Lando Vannata dominated Marcos Mariano on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 3:35 of control time, 18 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Lando Vannata | Marcos Mariano |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 98 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 058 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +51 | -21 |
Lando Vannata demonstrated solid activity levels with 98 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Lando Vannata capitalized on this activity level, while Marcos Mariano's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Lando Vannata | Marcos Mariano |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 010 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Lando Vannata started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Marcos Mariano is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Lando Vannata | Marcos Mariano |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 998 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.