July 12, 2016
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Lando Vannata | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -11 | 11 |
| Experience ELO | 991 | 1 317 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +9 |
Tony Ferguson's 11-fight experience advantage (12 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tony Ferguson for the expected result. Had Lando Vannata pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Lando Vannata | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 988 | 1 181 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +12 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Lando Vannata | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:22 | 2:22 |
| Win Type ELO | 994 | 1 445 |
| ELO Change | -6 | +10 |
Tony Ferguson earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:22, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Lando Vannata was submitted.
| Metric | Lando Vannata | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 40 | 66 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 110 | 119 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 42 | 69 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 993 | 1 399 |
| ELO Change | -7 | +7 |
Tony Ferguson controlled the striking exchanges with 69 vs 42 total strikes, 66 vs 40 significant strikes, 55.5% vs 36.4% accuracy. Tony Ferguson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Lando Vannata | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:10 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 994 | 1 447 |
| ELO Change | -6 | +6 |
Tony Ferguson edged out Lando Vannata on the ground through positional advantages and pressure, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Lando Vannata | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 215 |
| Activity ELO | 996 | 1 388 |
| ELO Change | -4 | +5 |
Tony Ferguson demonstrated standard activity with 215 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Tony Ferguson capitalized on this activity level, while Lando Vannata's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Lando Vannata | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 8 |
| Win Streak ELO | 993 | 1 292 |
| ELO Change | -7 | +25 |
Tony Ferguson continued building serious momentum with a 8-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Lando Vannata's now at 0.
| Metric | Lando Vannata | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 988 | 1 181 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +12 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.