October 23, 2020
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Liliya Shakirova |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 9 | -9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 037 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Lauren Murphy's 9-fight experience advantage (10 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Lauren Murphy for the expected result. Had Liliya Shakirova pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Liliya Shakirova |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 051 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Liliya Shakirova |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:31 | 3:31 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 158 | 971 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -29 |
Lauren Murphy earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:31, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Liliya Shakirova was submitted.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Liliya Shakirova |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 22 | 23 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 85 | 75 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 32 | 27 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 159 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
Lauren Murphy slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Lauren Murphy capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Liliya Shakirova |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:10 | 0:29 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 211 | 924 |
| ELO Change | +76 | -76 |
Lauren Murphy dominated Liliya Shakirova on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:10 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Liliya Shakirova |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 095 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -17 |
Lauren Murphy demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Lauren Murphy capitalized on this activity level, while Liliya Shakirova's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Liliya Shakirova |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 075 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -18 |
Lauren Murphy extended her 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Liliya Shakirova is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Liliya Shakirova |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 051 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.