April 3, 2015
Women's Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Liz Carmouche |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 935 | 981 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Liz Carmouche's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Liz Carmouche for the expected result. Had Lauren Murphy pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Liz Carmouche |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 957 | 981 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Liz Carmouche |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 945 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
Liz Carmouche earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Liz Carmouche |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 46 | 38 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 102 | 66 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 67 | 149 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 949 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Liz Carmouche dominated the striking exchanges with 149 vs 67 total strikes, 38 vs 46 significant strikes, 57.6% vs 45.1% accuracy. Liz Carmouche capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Liz Carmouche |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 9 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:28 | 1:35 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 902 | 940 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Liz Carmouche edged out Lauren Murphy on the ground with 2 takedowns, 1:35 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Liz Carmouche |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 231 | 350 |
| Activity ELO | 958 | 995 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Liz Carmouche demonstrated standard activity with 350 days since her last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Liz Carmouche capitalized on this activity level, while Lauren Murphy's 231-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Liz Carmouche |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 957 | 985 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +24 |
Liz Carmouche started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Lauren Murphy is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Liz Carmouche |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Bantamweight | Women's Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 957 | 981 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.