August 2, 2019
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Mara Romero Borella |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 928 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -43 |
Lauren Murphy's 3-fight experience advantage (7 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Lauren Murphy for the expected result. Had Mara Romero Borella pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Mara Romero Borella |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 988 | 997 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Mara Romero Borella |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:46 | 1:46 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 065 | 987 |
| ELO Change | +102 | -51 |
Lauren Murphy gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Mara Romero Borella |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 24 | 22 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 123 | 72 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 35 | 35 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 096 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +110 | -110 |
Lauren Murphy controlled the striking exchanges with 19.5% vs 30.6% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Lauren Murphy capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Mara Romero Borella |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:16 | 0:46 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 035 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | +85 | -85 |
Lauren Murphy landed 1 knockdown followed by 4 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Mara Romero Borella |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 428 | 182 |
| Activity ELO | 985 | 996 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -24 |
Lauren Murphy demonstrated extended layoff with 428 days since her last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Lauren Murphy capitalized on this activity level, while Mara Romero Borella's 182-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Mara Romero Borella |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 996 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -24 |
Lauren Murphy started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mara Romero Borella is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Mara Romero Borella |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 988 | 997 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.