June 19, 2020
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 006 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (9 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 032 | 974 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 113 | 992 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Lauren Murphy earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 72 | 44 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 158 | 174 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 92 | 71 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 145 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Lauren Murphy controlled the striking exchanges with 92 vs 71 total strikes, 72 vs 44 significant strikes, 45.6% vs 25.3% accuracy. Lauren Murphy capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:53 | 4:08 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 135 | 972 |
| ELO Change | +56 | -56 |
Lauren Murphy controlled Roxanne Modafferi on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 0:53 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 133 | 154 |
| Activity ELO | 1 060 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -21 |
Lauren Murphy demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Lauren Murphy capitalized on this activity level, while Roxanne Modafferi's 154-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 050 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -20 |
Lauren Murphy extended her 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Roxanne Modafferi is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 032 | 974 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.