August 15, 2014
Women's Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Sara McMann |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 968 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Sara McMann's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Sara McMann for the expected result. Had Lauren Murphy pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Sara McMann |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Sara McMann |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 991 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +9 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Sara McMann receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Sara McMann |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 48 | 38 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 83 | 80 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 193 | 64 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 978 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Lauren Murphy controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (193 vs 64 total strikes), significant strike advantage (48 vs 38), superior accuracy (57.8% vs 47.5%). However, since Lauren Murphy lost the overall fight, her striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Sara McMann's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Sara McMann |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 9 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:16 | 10:38 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 30 | 13 |
| Ground ELO | 939 | 1 122 |
| ELO Change | -61 | +61 |
Sara McMann controlled Lauren Murphy on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 10:38 of control time, 13 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Sara McMann |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 175 |
| Activity ELO | 979 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +37 |
Sara McMann demonstrated solid activity levels with 175 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Sara McMann capitalized on this activity level, while Lauren Murphy's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Sara McMann |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 979 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Sara McMann started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Lauren Murphy is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Lauren Murphy | Sara McMann |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Bantamweight | Women's Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

