May 25, 2012
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Lavar Johnson | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 073 | 1 144 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Stefan Struve's 8-fight experience advantage (11 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Stefan Struve for the expected result. Had Lavar Johnson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Lavar Johnson | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 022 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Lavar Johnson | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:05 | 1:05 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 177 | 1 343 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +65 |
Stefan Struve earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:05, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Lavar Johnson | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 7 | 0 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 7 | 0 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 198 | 1 171 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Lavar Johnson controlled the striking through superior accuracy (57.1% vs 0.0%). However, since Lavar Johnson lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Stefan Struve's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Lavar Johnson | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:53 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 006 | 1 152 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Stefan Struve edged out Lavar Johnson on the ground through positional advantages and pressure, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Lavar Johnson | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 21 | 101 |
| Activity ELO | 1 070 | 1 252 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +33 |
Stefan Struve demonstrated solid activity levels with 101 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Stefan Struve capitalized on this activity level, while Lavar Johnson's 21-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Lavar Johnson | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 030 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +24 |
Stefan Struve extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Lavar Johnson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Lavar Johnson | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 022 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

