July 15, 2014
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Leonardo Mafra | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | -14 | 14 |
| Experience ELO | 958 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Rick Story's 14-fight experience advantage (16 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rick Story for the expected result. Had Leonardo Mafra pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Leonardo Mafra | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 963 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Leonardo Mafra | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:12 | 2:12 |
| Win Type ELO | 946 | 1 281 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +19 |
Rick Story earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:12, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Leonardo Mafra was submitted.
| Metric | Leonardo Mafra | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 11 | 24 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 20 | 39 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 21 | 53 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 888 | 1 279 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +9 |
Rick Story controlled the striking exchanges with 53 vs 21 total strikes, 24 vs 11 significant strikes. Rick Story capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Leonardo Mafra | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 5:45 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 17 |
| Ground ELO | 858 | 1 243 |
| ELO Change | -73 | +73 |
Rick Story dominated Leonardo Mafra on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 5:45 of control time, 17 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Leonardo Mafra | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 753 | 123 |
| Activity ELO | 970 | 1 224 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +18 |
Rick Story demonstrated solid activity levels with 123 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Rick Story capitalized on this activity level, while Leonardo Mafra's 753-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Leonardo Mafra | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 966 | 1 131 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +14 |
Rick Story started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Leonardo Mafra is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Leonardo Mafra | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 962 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.