July 17, 2015
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Leonardo Mafra | Stevie Ray |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 966 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +29 |
Stevie Ray overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 4 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Leonardo Mafra.
| Metric | Leonardo Mafra | Stevie Ray |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 966 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Leonardo Mafra | Stevie Ray |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:30 | 2:30 |
| Win Type ELO | 957 | 1 147 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +72 |
Stevie Ray earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:30, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Leonardo Mafra | Stevie Ray |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 23 | 19 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 40 | 41 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 24 | 19 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 888 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | -54 | +54 |
Leonardo Mafra controlled the striking through superior accuracy (57.5% vs 46.3%). However, since Leonardo Mafra lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Stevie Ray's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Leonardo Mafra | Stevie Ray |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 936 | 1 089 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +42 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Leonardo Mafra | Stevie Ray |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | 98 |
| Activity ELO | 977 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +49 |
Stevie Ray demonstrated solid activity levels with 98 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Stevie Ray capitalized on this activity level, while Leonardo Mafra's 119-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Leonardo Mafra | Stevie Ray |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 971 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +23 |
Stevie Ray extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Leonardo Mafra is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Leonardo Mafra | Stevie Ray |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 965 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

