July 10, 2020
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Leonardo Santos | Roman Bogatov |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 209 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Leonardo Santos's 7-fight experience advantage (8 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Leonardo Santos for the expected result. Had Roman Bogatov pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Leonardo Santos | Roman Bogatov |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 131 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Leonardo Santos | Roman Bogatov |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 329 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
Leonardo Santos earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Leonardo Santos | Roman Bogatov |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 66 | 50 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 119 | 117 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 116 | 81 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 299 | 991 |
| ELO Change | +9 | -9 |
Leonardo Santos controlled the striking exchanges with 116 vs 81 total strikes, 66 vs 50 significant strikes, 55.5% vs 42.7% accuracy. Leonardo Santos capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Leonardo Santos | Roman Bogatov |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 11 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:34 | 6:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 14 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 1 266 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
Leonardo Santos edged out Roman Bogatov on the ground with 1 takedown, 1:34 of control time, 14 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Leonardo Santos | Roman Bogatov |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 406 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 170 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -12 |
Leonardo Santos demonstrated extended layoff with 406 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Leonardo Santos capitalized on this activity level, while Roman Bogatov's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Leonardo Santos | Roman Bogatov |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 6 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 187 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -12 |
Leonardo Santos continued building serious momentum with a 6-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Roman Bogatov's now at 0.
| Metric | Leonardo Santos | Roman Bogatov |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 131 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

