March 18, 2016
Women's Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Leslie Smith | Rin Nakai |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 013 | 938 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Leslie Smith's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Leslie Smith for the expected result. Had Rin Nakai pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Leslie Smith | Rin Nakai |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 000 | 957 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Leslie Smith | Rin Nakai |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 066 | 923 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Leslie Smith earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Leslie Smith | Rin Nakai |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 62 | 31 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 181 | 92 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 72 | 58 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 043 | 920 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Leslie Smith controlled the striking exchanges with 62 vs 31 significant strikes. Leslie Smith capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Leslie Smith | Rin Nakai |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 13 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 5:32 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 965 | 933 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Leslie Smith did not secure a significant ground advantage against Rin Nakai on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Leslie Smith | Rin Nakai |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 490 | 547 |
| Activity ELO | 1 028 | 961 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -19 |
Leslie Smith demonstrated extended layoff with 490 days since her last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Leslie Smith capitalized on this activity level, while Rin Nakai's 547-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Leslie Smith | Rin Nakai |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 005 | 957 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Leslie Smith started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rin Nakai is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Leslie Smith | Rin Nakai |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Bantamweight | Women's Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 000 | 957 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

