October 22, 2021
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Livinha Souza | Randa Markos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 18 |
| Experience Gap | -12 | 12 |
| Experience ELO | 952 | 857 |
| ELO Change | -47 | +47 |
Randa Markos's 12-fight experience advantage (18 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Randa Markos for the expected result. Had Livinha Souza pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Livinha Souza | Randa Markos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 986 | 962 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Livinha Souza | Randa Markos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 967 | 976 |
| ELO Change | -53 | +53 |
Randa Markos earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Livinha Souza | Randa Markos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 11 | 65 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 27 | 96 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 51 | 159 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 784 | 968 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +45 |
Randa Markos dominated the striking exchanges with 159 vs 51 total strikes, 65 vs 11 significant strikes, 67.7% vs 40.7% accuracy. Randa Markos capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Livinha Souza | Randa Markos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:31 | 8:47 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 16 |
| Ground ELO | 939 | 926 |
| ELO Change | -92 | +92 |
Randa Markos controlled Livinha Souza on the ground with 0 takedowns, 8:47 of control time, 16 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Livinha Souza | Randa Markos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 231 | 175 |
| Activity ELO | 1 006 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +41 |
Randa Markos demonstrated solid activity levels with 175 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Randa Markos capitalized on this activity level, while Livinha Souza's 231-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Livinha Souza | Randa Markos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 993 | 970 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +28 |
Randa Markos started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Livinha Souza is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Livinha Souza | Randa Markos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 986 | 959 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

