July 19, 2024
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Loik Radzhabov | Trey Ogden |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 999 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Trey Ogden's 2-fight experience advantage (6 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Trey Ogden for the expected result. Had Loik Radzhabov pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Loik Radzhabov | Trey Ogden |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 999 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Loik Radzhabov | Trey Ogden |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 037 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | -47 | +47 |
Trey Ogden earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Loik Radzhabov | Trey Ogden |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 42 | 24 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 86 | 47 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 97 | 116 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 976 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Loik Radzhabov controlled the striking through superior volume (97 vs 116 total strikes), significant strike advantage (42 vs 24). However, since Loik Radzhabov lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Trey Ogden's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Loik Radzhabov | Trey Ogden |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:36 | 9:47 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 18 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 040 | 1 122 |
| ELO Change | -76 | +76 |
Trey Ogden controlled Loik Radzhabov on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 9:47 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Loik Radzhabov | Trey Ogden |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 140 | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 1 006 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +51 |
Trey Ogden demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Trey Ogden capitalized on this activity level, while Loik Radzhabov's 140-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Loik Radzhabov | Trey Ogden |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 003 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +27 |
Trey Ogden extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Loik Radzhabov is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Loik Radzhabov | Trey Ogden |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 999 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

