August 2, 2024
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Loopy Godinez | Mackenzie Dern |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 081 | 1 152 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Mackenzie Dern's 2-fight experience advantage (14 vs 12 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Mackenzie Dern for the expected result. Had Loopy Godinez pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Loopy Godinez | Mackenzie Dern |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 037 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Loopy Godinez | Mackenzie Dern |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 080 | 1 195 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Mackenzie Dern earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Loopy Godinez | Mackenzie Dern |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 67 | 72 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 146 | 203 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 72 | 103 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 094 | 969 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Mackenzie Dern controlled the striking exchanges with 103 vs 72 total strikes, 72 vs 67 significant strikes, 35.5% vs 45.9% accuracy. Mackenzie Dern capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Loopy Godinez | Mackenzie Dern |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:41 | 2:45 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 197 | 1 232 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Mackenzie Dern edged out Loopy Godinez on the ground with 2 takedowns, 2:45 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Loopy Godinez | Mackenzie Dern |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 168 |
| Activity ELO | 1 258 | 1 222 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +48 |
Mackenzie Dern demonstrated solid activity levels with 168 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Mackenzie Dern capitalized on this activity level, while Loopy Godinez's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Loopy Godinez | Mackenzie Dern |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 067 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +24 |
Mackenzie Dern started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Loopy Godinez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Loopy Godinez | Mackenzie Dern |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 036 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

