Lorenz Larkin vs Santiago Ponzinibbio

June 26, 2015

Welterweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1064
(+52)
Lorenz Larkin
Winner: Lorenz Larkin
KO/TKO
Round 2 • 3:07

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Lorenz Larkin+52
Santiago Ponzinibbio-43
1008
(-43)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Lorenz Larkin: +34Santiago Ponzinibbio: -34

Performance Statistics

MetricLorenz LarkinSantiago Ponzinibbio
Total UFC Fights74
Experience Gap3-3
Experience ELO1 0531 015
ELO Change+34-34
💡

What Happened

Lorenz Larkin's 3-fight experience advantage (7 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Lorenz Larkin for the expected result. Had Santiago Ponzinibbio pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Lorenz Larkin: +24Santiago Ponzinibbio: -24

Performance Statistics

MetricLorenz LarkinSantiago Ponzinibbio
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0051 001
ELO Change+24-24
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Lorenz Larkin: +95Santiago Ponzinibbio: -46

Performance Statistics

MetricLorenz LarkinSantiago Ponzinibbio
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round22
Time of Finish3:073:07
Win Type ELO1 1781 073
ELO Change+95-46
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What Happened

Lorenz Larkin gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Lorenz Larkin: +106Santiago Ponzinibbio: -106

Performance Statistics

MetricLorenz LarkinSantiago Ponzinibbio
Significant Strikes Landed6433
Significant Strikes Attempted115101
Total Strikes Landed7136
Knockdowns Scored10
Striking ELO1 162963
ELO Change+106-106
💡

What Happened

Lorenz Larkin controlled the striking exchanges with 71 vs 36 total strikes, 64 vs 33 significant strikes, 55.7% vs 32.7% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Lorenz Larkin capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Lorenz Larkin: +65Santiago Ponzinibbio: -65

Performance Statistics

MetricLorenz LarkinSantiago Ponzinibbio
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted03
Ground Control Time0:310:55
Ground Strikes Landed110
Ground ELO1 019974
ELO Change+65-65
💡

What Happened

Lorenz Larkin landed 1 knockdown followed by 11 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Lorenz Larkin: +38Santiago Ponzinibbio: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricLorenz LarkinSantiago Ponzinibbio
Days Since Last Fight160125
Activity ELO1 0701 026
ELO Change+38-22
💡

What Happened

Lorenz Larkin demonstrated solid activity levels with 160 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Lorenz Larkin capitalized on this activity level, while Santiago Ponzinibbio's 125-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Lorenz Larkin: +28Santiago Ponzinibbio: -23

Performance Statistics

MetricLorenz LarkinSantiago Ponzinibbio
Win Streak20
Win Streak ELO1 0211 010
ELO Change+28-23
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What Happened

Lorenz Larkin extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Santiago Ponzinibbio is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Lorenz Larkin: +24Santiago Ponzinibbio: -24

Performance Statistics

MetricLorenz LarkinSantiago Ponzinibbio
Weight ClassWelterweightWelterweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0051 001
ELO Change+24-24
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.