December 29, 2017
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 961 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +35 |
Matheus Nicolau overcame a 7-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 10 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Louis Smolka.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 993 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 046 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +43 |
Matheus Nicolau earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 49 | 87 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 159 | 172 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 53 | 107 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 3 |
| Striking ELO | 1 005 | 1 268 |
| ELO Change | -139 | +139 |
Matheus Nicolau dominated the striking exchanges with 107 vs 53 total strikes, 87 vs 49 significant strikes, 50.6% vs 30.8% accuracy, including 3 devastating knockdowns. Matheus Nicolau capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:01 | 4:19 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 15 |
| Ground ELO | 919 | 1 178 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +43 |
Matheus Nicolau controlled Louis Smolka on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 4:19 of control time, 15 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 260 | 541 |
| Activity ELO | 1 036 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +19 |
Matheus Nicolau demonstrated extended layoff with 541 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Matheus Nicolau capitalized on this activity level, while Louis Smolka's 260-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 012 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +26 |
Matheus Nicolau extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Louis Smolka is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 992 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.